Summary: The Fed has been on hold since July 2023. When the Fed paused the hiking cycle in 2019, Bitcoin prices rallied +300%. Buying short-term call spreads (29,000 / 32,000) might be the optimal strategy for the next month-end expiry on October 27, 2023. The 29,000 calls are priced with an implied volatility of 33.4%, while the 32,000 calls are priced at 39.4% vol.
Analysis:
As expected last week, Bitcoin prices have broken out of their short-term downtrend and could potentially target the 31,500 year-to-date highs. Higher oil prices and the relentless rise in US 10-year treasury yields could threaten financial markets as US central bankers might verbally pressure markets to expect hawkishness from the Fed.
Summary: The Fed has been on hold since July 2023. When the Fed paused the hiking cycle in 2019, Bitcoin prices rallied +300%. Buying short-term call spreads (29,000 / 32,000) might be the optimal strategy for the next month-end expiry on October 27, 2023. The 29,000 calls are priced with an implied volatility of 33.4%, while the 32,000 calls are priced at 39.4% vol.
Analysis:
As expected last week, Bitcoin prices have broken out of their short-term downtrend and could potentially target the 31,500 year-to-date highs. Higher oil prices and the relentless rise in US 10-year treasury yields could threaten financial markets as US central bankers might verbally pressure markets to expect hawkishness from the Fed.